As of this Friday’s close of the market, the question of what is 25 bitcoins worth today rose from $1,637,500 (unit price of BTC $65,500) on Monday to $1,675,000 ($67,000 /BTC), 2.3% higher for the week. However, the amplitude during the period was 8.4% (with a low of $63,800 and a high of $69,200). This volatility is squarely due to the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates (CME chance up to 72%) and the inflow of capital into Bitcoin spot ETFs (BlackRock IBIT was up 420 million US dollars net this week). If denominated in pounds, 25 BTC’s value was affected by fluctuations in exchange rates, increasing from £1,292,000 (1 GBP=1.267 USD) to £1,312,500 (1 GBP=1.275 USD), a real increase of 1.6%.
Price action is dictated by the tug of war between bulls and bears. In the derivatives market, Bitcoin perpetual contracts’ open interest increased 18% this week to $36.5 billion. The Binance funding rate had gone as high as 0.08% (bull-dominated) before, but on Wednesday, when the German government auctioned 3,200 BTC (around $114 million), the price briefly fell to $63,800. It made the price of 25 BTC shrink by $78,000 on a daily scale. On-chain data shows that whale addresses (>1,000 BTC) net added 6,400 BTC (approximately 428 million US dollars) to their holdings this week, while retail investors (<1 BTC) saw their holdings decrease by 12,000 BTC, adding to market divergence.
Regulatory news is combined with technical indicators. The United States SEC postponed its decision on the Ethereum ETF, and the entire market capitalization of the crypto market disappeared by 3.7% within a day. However, Bitcoin dropped only 1.2% due to its “safe-haven quality.”. From a technical analysis perspective, BTC RSI dropped from 58 at the beginning of the week to 49 (neutral area), the MACD histogram turned negative, and the Bollinger Bands narrowed to $6,200 (volatility decreased by 15%). If 25 BTC holders employ a dynamic hedging strategy (such as Delta neutral), they can reduce their risk exposure by 23% this week, but the handling fee is approximately 0.4% (approximately $6,700).
On-chain activity affirms market robustness. The computational power of the Bitcoin network exceeded 700 EH/s this week, a new all-time high. Mining difficulty was increased by 5.2% to 86 T, which corresponds to a production cost of approximately $45,000 per BTC, providing support for the price. Meanwhile, “Diamond Hand” addresses that have held for over one year accumulated 28,000 BTC (approximately 1.88 billion US dollars) in their holdings this week, and their long-term confidence has not declined. However, the short-term trading volume declined. The average daily volume of the BTC/USD pair traded by Coinbase declined by 12% quarter-over-quarter to 4.2 billion US dollars, causing the immediate liquidity premium of how much is 25 bitcoins worth today to expand from 0.1% to 0.3%.
Examples of geopolitical and fiat currency crises highlight the demand. In Argentina (where inflation this year is running at 289%), local peso pricing of 25 BTC surged to 22.3 billion pesos (circa 20.5 million US dollars) this week, up 19%, with the premium rate 22% higher than the international price. Additionally, MicroStrategy announced a further increase of its holdings by 2,500 BTC (approximately 168 million US dollars), where its holdings amount to 214,246 BTC and the average cost is 35,158 US dollars. Selling 25 BTC now can earn a profit of 804,550 US dollars (yield rate 90.8%).
Institutional products have a close relation with the macroeconomy. Blackrock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) received a net inflow of $420 million this week, equivalent to 2.1% of its total asset management ($20 billion), pushing up the institutional pricing benchmark of how much is 25 bitcoins worth today. However, if the US August CPI numbers are hotter than anticipated (projected at 3.3%), the resurgence in the prospects for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates can lead the price of 25 BTC to pull back below $1,600,000 (support at $64,000).
Briefly, the price of 25 BTC saw a moderate gain (+2.3%) over the week, but volatility (30-day annualized volatility of 55%) and regulatory risks (e.g., the progress of Coinbase’s lawsuit) remain near-term disruptive forces. The gain was $37,500 if the owner bought it at Monday’s low and held it through Friday. Conversely, leveraged traders may have lost more than $150,000 (a 5x leveraged margin call) in Wednesday’s crash. In the medium and long terms, the shortage of supply and institutionally building positions following the halving (e.g., a daily average of 120 million US dollars invested in ETFs) could push the price of 25 BTC above 2 million US dollars (which corresponds to a unit price of 80,000 US dollars per BTC).